The valuation of the stock is based on Musk doing what he’s always done, which is making seemingly impossible promises sometime in the future.
You know what he promised by 2025? A fleet of driverless Tesla taxis. xAI producing the first AGI. A human being on Mars planting a flag.
You know what the evaluation of SpaceX is based on? The promise of a Mars colony with one million human inhabitants, and space-based data centers. It’s going to be decades before it’s worth the IPO, if ever.
In the meantime SpaceX is in debt 20 billion, and is bleeding money. It lost $4.94 billion in 2025.
So it looks to me like a private equity project. Like Toys 'R Us or Radio Shack or Claire’s. Remember those?
And Nasdaq-100 is fast-tracking SpaceX into its portfolio after 15 days. Soon, pension funds and 401(k)s are going to feature SpaceX stocks. So when it does implode, a lot of worker-class folk are going to eat the loss.
You know who I bet will not be eating the loss? Trillionaire Elon Musk.
One should note that the stock is still up $50 per share up from its IPO price ($135 vs $185 or about 37%). Also the Cursor option was fully outlined before the IPO so it shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Not that I don’t think all of this is dumb, it’s just another hype / gambling stock without much substance led by Elon who got his Twitter buyout.
No crying in the casino
xAI buried inside SpaceX wasn’t enough to make them uncomfortable?
It’s worse than that… what they IPO with is basically a tiny percentage of SpaceX composed solely of xAI
The entire stock market is basically 99.9% blind speculation and 0.1% basic math, which is why it rarely makes sense
